Thank you for your comment. It's true that estimating probabilities of extreme events are difficult, if not impractical. Miller and the judges initially went against it, but Rootclaim insisted this was the best way forward, and they relented.

That said, it's not entirely impossible to estimate the prior probabilities of lab leak vs. zoonosis. Lab leaks have occured in the past, as well as zoonosis, which were our starting points.